tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post8187984499611602444..comments2024-02-04T19:16:19.435-08:00Comments on Richard W. Munchkin: Dice Control - NotRichard Munchkinhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03104482811916481526noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-63565563428660352122021-12-30T17:33:06.993-08:002021-12-30T17:33:06.993-08:00The requirement that "dice control" impl...The requirement that "dice control" implies fewer 7s than random for advantage play is fundamentally false. This can be clearly seen when looking at the myriad of bets available on a craps table. Does the Field bet require fewer 7s than random? Does Aces require fewer 7s than random? The answer is no.<br /><br />I believe it is practically impossible to reduce the frequency of 7s below random. The corollary should also hold true, i.e. it is also impossible to increase the frequency of 7s above random. Why do I believe this? Because to change the frequency of 7s requires the control of <i>both</i> dice, not simply one. The roll of 7 in Craps is unique because, regardless of the outcome of the first die, the outcome of the second die can always result in a roll of 7. To see how this differs with a roll of 6, let's assume that the outcome of the first die is 6. It can be seen that there is no possible outcome of the second die which results in a roll of 6. Only rolls of 7-12 are possible. <br /><br />So, an advantage player who could increase the frequency of one die so that its outcome of 6 exceeds random <i>may</i> exhibit a form of dice control that could be exploited for financial gain. In this case that would be laying against 6. Of course the house edge would need to be defeated, and the AP may not possess sufficient skills to increase frequency of a 6 die such that laying against 6 shows a profit. The central point here is that controlling both dice to throw fewer (or more frequent) 7s is not necessary to gain positive expectation.<br /><br />Craps bets that are easiest to exploit with single die control have the following in common:<br />(a) influencing a single outcome of a die has a direct positive effect on expected value (EV);<br />(b) increasing frequency of a die's outcome increases EV at a greater rate than reducing frequency of a die's outcome; and <br />(c) these bets have the lowest house edge (zero edge for odds bets).<br /><br />Assuming 10x odds and uniform distribution of the non-influenced outcomes, the AP would need to influence a single die to show "1" (or "6") as desired with a frequency about 102% of random to at least break even and recover the 1.4% house edge present with Don't Pass.<br /><br />It may be that influencing a single die may also influence the other die in non-random, undesirable ways. The objective of the AP would be to minimize this effect.<br />With all this being true, the advantage player will almost certainly find that influencing a single die will prove quite difficult, and for many physically impossible.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04780492952692281469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-80079176441773410572017-11-17T02:58:27.045-08:002017-11-17T02:58:27.045-08:00I aim for the margin at the bottom of the back wal...I aim for the margin at the bottom of the back wall, so that it follows the letter of the rule without actually hitting the pyramids.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-81358550776816765872017-07-11T19:52:17.632-07:002017-07-11T19:52:17.632-07:00By all means, please continue to argue against the...By all means, please continue to argue against the feasibility of influencing the dice, even occasionally (which is all it takes to gain an advantage). The more players (and hopefully casino personnel) that you can convince that dice influencing (DI) is a myth, the better for those advantage players who are employing it successfully. The good news is that fact and truth does not require someone to believe in it for it to be true. It is either true, or it isn't, in and of itself. The proof can only be truly measured by the results, and no serious player is going to get on here and brag about his or her success with DI. Neither esoteric arguments about Newtonian Physics, nor limited "tests" of 500 rolls, will replace results (money in the rack). Don't "believe in" DI? Fine. Keep rattling and shaking 'em and slinging them down the table. Believe in DI? Set the dice and toss them. If the naysayers are right, and DI is not possible, then you still have a "random" game, so you've lost nothing by attempting DI. If you are right, and your results show it, let those who doubt DI enjoy their attempts at explaining it away. Everyone ends up happy. :) Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-17439782151954735122014-08-26T16:25:48.373-07:002014-08-26T16:25:48.373-07:00Setting the dice and tossing them on-axis does de-...Setting the dice and tossing them on-axis does de-randomize the dice to a degree that when combined with the right betting method does give an slight advantage to the player.<br /><br />The ability to toss the dice on-axis is not consistent and factors such as the playing conditions, the dice weight and size, the table surface all have its effect on the dice and how much energy will be absorbed or transfer back in to the dice when they hit the table to the back wall. All of this the shooter needs to account for when tossing the dice for effect. Lots of practice and practical experience at the tables can teach a Dice Influence shooter how to adjust for just about any sort of conditions.<br />No mechanical device can simulate the actual dice toss of a skilled shooter. This would be to say that a baseball pitching machine could replace a legionary pitcher, and that is simply not so.<br /><br />Dice Influence alone is not enough to beat Craps.<br /><br />Most craps players simply lose due to poor betting and play methods. Structured play and using regressions is the only means for professional craps players means to beat the game. If you want to play like this, then say goodbye to the hardways, the horns and the hop bets, those are just for the amateurs to get addicted to, think of it like the casino selling you crack - it looks sexy when you win the first time, but in the long run you lose badly.<br /><br />All of the Dice Clubs that teach Dice Influence are careful to set expectations and tell those who attend that it takes years of practical play and experience to really get anywhere with the skill. We are talking about daily play either live at the casinos or at home on a casino grade table to develop the DI skills. <br /><br />The cries of voodoo out there about Dice Influence tends to come from those who don't have the patience or the time put in to this skill and exhibit buyers remorse about what they may have spent to learn the skill. Its just like learning a golf swing, you pay for it but if you don't actually put the time and effort in it - it then just won't get you where you want to go.<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Indie Film Guyhttp://diceinstitute.mxf.yuku.com/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-24010984527242190972012-07-28T22:30:13.128-07:002012-07-28T22:30:13.128-07:00I whole heartedly agree with Blackriverw. views......I whole heartedly agree with Blackriverw. views...<br /><br />For my two cents I'd like to add that every throw we take affects the outcome of the dice, good or bad. This is clearly true after we have thrown the dice..."If only I had throw it just a bit softer that seven would not have come up..." And there is nothing wrong with that statement. There are physical laws in whihc the dice abide by the dice dont change properties int he air on every throw. 1 real influence in a session is all you need. Sure you won't be a millionaire because that isn't the point. In blackjack craps poker there is still a gamble... Sure you can win in poker when you play inexperienced players but when you come across someone with a higher skill set than you... We'll the house edge isn't in your favor anymore....!!_NICK_!!https://www.blogger.com/profile/15928180664783214819noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-28486498726295120162012-05-13T15:00:56.934-07:002012-05-13T15:00:56.934-07:00This only ambiguously disproves some irrelevant hy...This only ambiguously disproves some irrelevant hypothesis.<br /><br />Some places allow for 100x odds true to be laid behind $5 bets in which the house has a 1.41% edge.<br /><br />$5 * .0141 ~ 7 cents<br /><br />So you can bet $505 at 7 cents per bet<br /><br />If I make 7214 of these bets it'll cost me $0.07*7214 = $505 of expected value<br /><br />Each bet takes an average of 8.5 rolls to resolve<br /> http://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/123/ <br /><br />But some of them will be come out rolls, lets conservatively say there are an average of 6 rolls during the "point cycle" where youre trying to avoid 7<br /><br />It would take 43,285 point cycle rolls for the house to get $505 worth of ev with this type of betting. If you manage to influence a single roll that would've been a 7 you are playing a break even game. I think I can keep the dice on axis one time in 40000! They'll even let you short throw more often than that which even the staunchest critics would say is probably possible to influence.Blackriverwnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-4082481490083758475.post-26416055483728968032011-12-14T06:17:36.078-08:002011-12-14T06:17:36.078-08:00An extraordinarily well-crafted disquisition by th...An extraordinarily well-crafted disquisition by the redoubtable author of <i>Backgammon for Blood</i> and <i>Blackjack for Blood</i>.<br /><br />The airtight logic is proffered in a fashion that leaves no room for rational debate. We can leave that wrangling to the dusty annals of history thanks to Mssrs. Newton and Leibnitz.ZenMaster_Flashnoreply@blogger.com