is available. It only took 10 years but hey, better late than never. And at $5.95 you can't go wrong. check it out.Friday, June 29, 2012
Gambling Wizards makes it to Kindle
Wow, finally the Kindle edition of Gambling Wizards
is available. It only took 10 years but hey, better late than never. And at $5.95 you can't go wrong. check it out.
is available. It only took 10 years but hey, better late than never. And at $5.95 you can't go wrong. check it out.
Thursday, June 28, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Stephen How
This week's guest is Stephen How, webmaster for www.discountgambling.net.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, June 21, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Arnold Snyder part 2
The guest this week is Arnold Snyder, noted blackjack author, but this week he is talking poker. More specifically his second poker book, The Poker Tournament Formula II: Advanced Strategies
.
.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, June 14, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Arnold Snyder
The guest this wek is Arnold Snyder, noted blackjack author, but this week he is talking poker. More specifically his book, Poker Tournament Formula
.
.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, June 7, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Jason Been
The guest this week is handicapper Jason Been, on to discuss advantage sports betting.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, May 31, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Frank Kneeland
This week's guest will be Frank Kneeland, former co-host of the radio show, and author of The Secret World Of Poker Progressives
, and soon-to-be co-host of a brand new radio show.
, and soon-to-be co-host of a brand new radio show.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, May 24, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Geoff Hall
The guest this week is Geoff Hall, inventor of Blackjack Switch and other table games.
Michael Shackleford discusses the process of obtaining a patent on a table game invention.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, May 17, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - Guest Roger Snow
This week's guest is Roger Snow, Executive Vice President of Shuffle Master, Inc. Roger is in charge of table games. Bob and Mike talk to Roger about designing these games and how inventors can get their games
considered.
considered.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Friday, May 11, 2012
Amarillo Slim
Amarillo Slim died on April 29, 2012. Slim won the World Series of Poker in 1972, but he wasn't the best poker player around by a long shot; but he was the best at manipulating the media. Wherever there was a camera, a microphone, or a reporter with a notepad, Slim was there with some crazy story of winning thousands of dollars playing ping pong with frying pans, or golf with a hammer. As a teenager obsessed with gambling I couldn't get enough. He showed up in magazines, on Johnny Carson, and in Robert Altman's classic gambling film, California Split
.
I wondered, when a guy like Amarillo Slim shows up and wants to bet $50,000 that he can hit a golf ball a mile, why would anyone bet with him? (He stole this proposition bet from Titanic Thompson, and hit the golf ball on a frozen lake.) You see I had grown up reading the stories of Damon Runyon, and one of my favorites was,The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown. In this story (which was the basis for the musical Guys and Dolls) a gambler, Nathan Detroit offers to bet Sky Masterson that Lindy's restaurant sells more strudel than cheesecake. Sky tells him the following story.
"Let me tell you a story. When I was a young man about to go out into the world, my father says to me a very valuable thing. 'Son,' the old guy says, 'I'm sorry that I am not able to bankroll you a very large start. But not having any potatoes to give you, I am going to give you some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, you are going to come across a guy with a nice brand new deck of cards, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not take this bet, for if you do, as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an ear full of cider.' "
In 1977 I moved to Las Vegas and got a job as a blackjack dealer at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas. I was in awe of the place. At that time it had the most popular poker room in Las Vegas, the World Series of poker was right across the street at the Horseshoe, and I would regularly see Johnny Moss, Doyle Brunson, and Puggy Pearson in the casino. Steve Wynn would wander through the pit in blue jeans and a sweat shirt, Kenny Rogers was the entertainment director, and Willy Nelson would play in the lounge for as long as people set tequila shots on the front of the stage.
I heard that a lot of the big poker players had taken up backgammon, and were playing it for very high stakes. My dream was to try to get into a backgammon game with one of these guys because at the time I considered my self quite a good player, and I knew that at this time none of them were playing at a high level. One day I get off my blackjack game for a 20 minute break, and walking down the hall toward me is Amarillo Slim. I stopped him, and told him how much I enjoyed reading about him, and that I had read his book on poker. He thanked me, and then I hit him with, "I hear you're quite a backgammon player. I'd love to play some time." Slim was about a foot taller than me, he looked down at me and started chuckling. I don't remember exactly what he said, but the idea was, Kid, I could smell cider about the time you entered the state of Nevada. I was young, and as green as they come, but I realized my chances of taking any money off one of these life-long gamblers were slim and none, and Slim was out.
Slim wrote a poker book back in the early 70s called Amarillo Slim's Play Poker to Win
. The poker advice was not very good, but there are some great stories about proposition bets he made with people. In 2003 he wrote Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People: The Memoirs of the Greatest Gambler Who Ever Lived
and this is quite an entertaining book.
I have one more story that doesn't have to do with Slim, but happened about the same time at the Golden Nugget. I was dealing one night to a very nice looking woman, and we started talking. It turned out she was Kenny Roger's wife. He was the entertainment director at the Nugget and he would soon leave because Lucille was exploding on the charts. She mentioned that she and Kenny loved to play backgammon. (Backgammon was very popular in the 70s.) I told her how much I liked to play, and she mentioned that she would have to introduce me to her husband some time, and we continued on having a nice conversation until I went on break. Later that night I had my lunch break, and the dealers ate at the counter in the coffee shop. As I was leaving I saw her, Kenny, and the assistant shift boss sitting in a booth. I stopped by the table, and she introduced me to Kenny, and I mentioned that I loved backgammon and if he was ever interested in playing I was always up for a game. I went back to the pit, and about 20 minutes later I was standing on a dead blackjack table. All of a sudden I felt someone grab a fist full of hair on the back of my head and jerk me back from the table. It was the assistant shift boss, his face red, and he says, "What the fuck do you think you are doing?" I said, "what?" He said, "You want to hustle Kenny Rogers at backgammon?" (And I thought I was so subtle.) I said, "I wasn't trying to hustle him, I was just trying to..." and he says, "I know exactly what you were trying to do. Just keep your head down and deal the fucking cards."
I have fond memories of those days at the Golden Nugget. It was the beginning of my education. I learned that those famous gamblers were not the men I thought they were. I learned that people were usually streetwise enough to sense when they were about to get an ear full of cider. We used to joke that in Las Vegas the streets were paved with gold. I learned that they are, but it takes a pick, and a shovel, and a lot of hard work to dig out those nuggets.
.
I wondered, when a guy like Amarillo Slim shows up and wants to bet $50,000 that he can hit a golf ball a mile, why would anyone bet with him? (He stole this proposition bet from Titanic Thompson, and hit the golf ball on a frozen lake.) You see I had grown up reading the stories of Damon Runyon, and one of my favorites was,The Idyll of Miss Sarah Brown. In this story (which was the basis for the musical Guys and Dolls) a gambler, Nathan Detroit offers to bet Sky Masterson that Lindy's restaurant sells more strudel than cheesecake. Sky tells him the following story.
"Let me tell you a story. When I was a young man about to go out into the world, my father says to me a very valuable thing. 'Son,' the old guy says, 'I'm sorry that I am not able to bankroll you a very large start. But not having any potatoes to give you, I am going to give you some very valuable advice. One of these days in your travels, you are going to come across a guy with a nice brand new deck of cards, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not take this bet, for if you do, as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an ear full of cider.' "
In 1977 I moved to Las Vegas and got a job as a blackjack dealer at the Golden Nugget in downtown Las Vegas. I was in awe of the place. At that time it had the most popular poker room in Las Vegas, the World Series of poker was right across the street at the Horseshoe, and I would regularly see Johnny Moss, Doyle Brunson, and Puggy Pearson in the casino. Steve Wynn would wander through the pit in blue jeans and a sweat shirt, Kenny Rogers was the entertainment director, and Willy Nelson would play in the lounge for as long as people set tequila shots on the front of the stage.
I heard that a lot of the big poker players had taken up backgammon, and were playing it for very high stakes. My dream was to try to get into a backgammon game with one of these guys because at the time I considered my self quite a good player, and I knew that at this time none of them were playing at a high level. One day I get off my blackjack game for a 20 minute break, and walking down the hall toward me is Amarillo Slim. I stopped him, and told him how much I enjoyed reading about him, and that I had read his book on poker. He thanked me, and then I hit him with, "I hear you're quite a backgammon player. I'd love to play some time." Slim was about a foot taller than me, he looked down at me and started chuckling. I don't remember exactly what he said, but the idea was, Kid, I could smell cider about the time you entered the state of Nevada. I was young, and as green as they come, but I realized my chances of taking any money off one of these life-long gamblers were slim and none, and Slim was out.
Slim wrote a poker book back in the early 70s called Amarillo Slim's Play Poker to Win
. The poker advice was not very good, but there are some great stories about proposition bets he made with people. In 2003 he wrote Amarillo Slim in a World Full of Fat People: The Memoirs of the Greatest Gambler Who Ever Lived and this is quite an entertaining book.I have one more story that doesn't have to do with Slim, but happened about the same time at the Golden Nugget. I was dealing one night to a very nice looking woman, and we started talking. It turned out she was Kenny Roger's wife. He was the entertainment director at the Nugget and he would soon leave because Lucille was exploding on the charts. She mentioned that she and Kenny loved to play backgammon. (Backgammon was very popular in the 70s.) I told her how much I liked to play, and she mentioned that she would have to introduce me to her husband some time, and we continued on having a nice conversation until I went on break. Later that night I had my lunch break, and the dealers ate at the counter in the coffee shop. As I was leaving I saw her, Kenny, and the assistant shift boss sitting in a booth. I stopped by the table, and she introduced me to Kenny, and I mentioned that I loved backgammon and if he was ever interested in playing I was always up for a game. I went back to the pit, and about 20 minutes later I was standing on a dead blackjack table. All of a sudden I felt someone grab a fist full of hair on the back of my head and jerk me back from the table. It was the assistant shift boss, his face red, and he says, "What the fuck do you think you are doing?" I said, "what?" He said, "You want to hustle Kenny Rogers at backgammon?" (And I thought I was so subtle.) I said, "I wasn't trying to hustle him, I was just trying to..." and he says, "I know exactly what you were trying to do. Just keep your head down and deal the fucking cards."
I have fond memories of those days at the Golden Nugget. It was the beginning of my education. I learned that those famous gamblers were not the men I thought they were. I learned that people were usually streetwise enough to sense when they were about to get an ear full of cider. We used to joke that in Las Vegas the streets were paved with gold. I learned that they are, but it takes a pick, and a shovel, and a lot of hard work to dig out those nuggets.
Thursday, May 10, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Bob Nersesian #3
The guest this week is Bob Nersesian. Bob is a frequent guest to the show, and always entertaining. Bob is the lawyer who advocates for the players against the casinos, and has successfully sued many Vegas casinos on the behalf of players. He is also the author of Beat the Players
.
.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Nolan Dalla
The guest this week is Nolan Dalla, media director of the World Series of Poker.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, April 26, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Richard Munchkin
The guest this week is Richard Munchkin telling war stories from the blackjack trenches.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, April 19, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Mark Gruetze
The guest this week is Mark Gruetze. Mark writes a regular gambling column for players in the Pittsburg Tribune-Review.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, April 12, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Don Schlesinger
The guest this week is Don Schlesinger, author of Blackjack Attack
.
.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Beth Uston
This week's guest is Beth Uston, daughter of blackjack player and author Ken Uston.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, March 29, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Michael Gaughan
The guest on the show this week is Michael Gaughan, owner of the South Point Casino in Las Vegas.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
Thursday, March 22, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Stanford Wong
The guest this week is Stanford Wong, on to discuss his book Sharp Sports Betting
.
. Click to listen - Alt click to download
.Monday, March 19, 2012
Advice to new Advantage Players
Over the course of my career in gambling, when people learn what I do they often say, “Can you teach me to do that?” Some of them sounded really serious, and I spent quite some time with them only to learn that they really were not serious about learning once they realized that it actually requires effort. After wasting dozens of hours with a few people I developed a new approach. Now when asked I respond, “Go learn basic strategy perfectly, and come back.” 99% of those people I never hear from again. People who read blackjack books are like people who buy books about diet or exercise. They want to read the book one night, and wake up the next day thin, or fit, or able to win money in casinos. A few people have come back claiming to have learned basic strategy, and I ask them, “When do you split nines?” or the killer, “What do you do with A7?” Then I get answers like, “I mostly know it.”
This brings me to my son who recently turned 18. A couple years ago he expressed interest in learning to play. I told him he had years before he would be able to play, but if he wanted to get started he should read Blackbelt in Blackjack
by Arnold Snyder, and then learn basic strategy. I usually recommend Blackbelt, or Knock-Out Blackjack
for beginners even though my first book was Playing Blackjack as a Business
by Lawrence Revere. I told him there are also some good trainers for learning basic strategy online; one good one is at blackjackinfo.com. He’s had two years with the book, and now at 18 he can legally play at several casinos in California, but of course he hasn’t learned basic strategy yet. I have 2 friends of many years, one taught his son to play, and the other his son-in-law. Both of these fine young men have made hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years, and I swear neither one of them could ace a basic strategy test. But they both have the benefit of nepotism as will my son.
Here is my advice to my son, as well as anyone else starting out as an advantage player.
1. Your success will be determined by how hard you work, and how many friends you have.
I think these two things are true no matter what your business, but many people fail to realize how important the second thought is. I can not begin to count the hundreds of thousands of dollars I have made over my career because a friend called me up and said, “There is a really good game at “blank” or “We have this project starting up; do you want to be a part of it?” Just a few months ago I was walking through a casino with Bob Dancer. We walked past a row of slot machines, and he casually said in passing, “These slots are beatable.” I haven’t made any money from those slot machines yet, but you get the idea.
2. You must move beyond counting cards as quickly as possible. Counting cards has the smallest edge, and the most heat. If you scout a casino, and the only option you see is a blackjack count game, you are better off leaving for another casino.
3. Do not listen to people on the internet. Here are some of the things you will read.
Computers are illegal, and if you use one you will end up in jail. (They are in NV but that doesn’t mean they are everywhere else)
You can’t bet big without a players card. (Total bullshit. I do it all the time.)
Casinos don’t cheat because they would lose their license. (Nonsense, a casino in Las Vegas wouldn’t lose their license if they murdered someone. Maybe someone would get fired. They don’t cheat because it would be bad for business. Cheating does go on, rarely, and not as a casino policy but usually by some dealer who has taken it on himself for some twisted reason.)
The world is a dangerous and scary place. Don’t go to foreign casinos because they cheat, and you could end up in jail or worse. (The world is full of fascinating places and interesting people. Don’t be afraid to go out and live. And what can be better than seeing the world and earning money while you do it? Yes, you have to be extra careful in some places, but then that is true in Gary, Indiana or Atlantic City, New Jersey.)
6-5 games are the death of blackjack. (For many players 6-5 has been a boon.)
4. Your identity has real value. Do not give it up for a free buffet, in fact never use a players card without a good reason. Getting a room comp is NOT a good reason. The only good reason that comes to mind is your ev is coming from something the casino is giving you, like cash, airfare reimbursement in cash, fight tickets that are worth cash, loss rebates in cash. (note a pattern here) If this is the case then that is your ev and you should not play in any way that may get you heat as an advantage player.
5. Whether you study history, economics, or advantage play it is not about memorizing names, and dates, and numbers. It is about learning how to think. I read a post on a blackjack forum. A dealer was offering the shoe to be cut and exposed a few cards on the back of the shoe. 3 of clubs, 7 of clubs, ace of spades. The player cut about 1 deck and then waited. About one deck in he saw his 3 of clubs, bet big, and caught his ace of spades. Good for him for keeping his eyes open, and taking advantage of a good situation, but what is more important is that you learn to think. When you run into this type of thing ask yourself:
“What caused the dealer to expose those cards?”
“Is it possible I could find more of these opportunities?”
“Are there other dealers who might be prone to this?”
“What if I scouted for dealers to see if I could find this opportunity again?”
“Is it possible that this could apply to other games?”
Actions speak louder than words - and get the money. 99/100 people on the boards will look at the above example and say, "Yeah, that is a big edge, but I'll only see that once every hundred years." (See #3)
6. I think one of the most important things I can tell you is this - right now there are games out there worth $1,000 or $2,000 per hour. There are many games out there right now worth $500 per hour. They are there. If you go out and dig you will find the gold. (See #1) And when you find it... remember who your friends are.
This brings me to my son who recently turned 18. A couple years ago he expressed interest in learning to play. I told him he had years before he would be able to play, but if he wanted to get started he should read Blackbelt in Blackjack
by Arnold Snyder, and then learn basic strategy. I usually recommend Blackbelt, or Knock-Out Blackjack for beginners even though my first book was Playing Blackjack as a Business by Lawrence Revere. I told him there are also some good trainers for learning basic strategy online; one good one is at blackjackinfo.com. He’s had two years with the book, and now at 18 he can legally play at several casinos in California, but of course he hasn’t learned basic strategy yet. I have 2 friends of many years, one taught his son to play, and the other his son-in-law. Both of these fine young men have made hundreds of thousands of dollars over the years, and I swear neither one of them could ace a basic strategy test. But they both have the benefit of nepotism as will my son. Here is my advice to my son, as well as anyone else starting out as an advantage player.
1. Your success will be determined by how hard you work, and how many friends you have.
I think these two things are true no matter what your business, but many people fail to realize how important the second thought is. I can not begin to count the hundreds of thousands of dollars I have made over my career because a friend called me up and said, “There is a really good game at “blank” or “We have this project starting up; do you want to be a part of it?” Just a few months ago I was walking through a casino with Bob Dancer. We walked past a row of slot machines, and he casually said in passing, “These slots are beatable.” I haven’t made any money from those slot machines yet, but you get the idea.
2. You must move beyond counting cards as quickly as possible. Counting cards has the smallest edge, and the most heat. If you scout a casino, and the only option you see is a blackjack count game, you are better off leaving for another casino.
3. Do not listen to people on the internet. Here are some of the things you will read.
Computers are illegal, and if you use one you will end up in jail. (They are in NV but that doesn’t mean they are everywhere else)
You can’t bet big without a players card. (Total bullshit. I do it all the time.)
Casinos don’t cheat because they would lose their license. (Nonsense, a casino in Las Vegas wouldn’t lose their license if they murdered someone. Maybe someone would get fired. They don’t cheat because it would be bad for business. Cheating does go on, rarely, and not as a casino policy but usually by some dealer who has taken it on himself for some twisted reason.)
The world is a dangerous and scary place. Don’t go to foreign casinos because they cheat, and you could end up in jail or worse. (The world is full of fascinating places and interesting people. Don’t be afraid to go out and live. And what can be better than seeing the world and earning money while you do it? Yes, you have to be extra careful in some places, but then that is true in Gary, Indiana or Atlantic City, New Jersey.)
6-5 games are the death of blackjack. (For many players 6-5 has been a boon.)
4. Your identity has real value. Do not give it up for a free buffet, in fact never use a players card without a good reason. Getting a room comp is NOT a good reason. The only good reason that comes to mind is your ev is coming from something the casino is giving you, like cash, airfare reimbursement in cash, fight tickets that are worth cash, loss rebates in cash. (note a pattern here) If this is the case then that is your ev and you should not play in any way that may get you heat as an advantage player.
5. Whether you study history, economics, or advantage play it is not about memorizing names, and dates, and numbers. It is about learning how to think. I read a post on a blackjack forum. A dealer was offering the shoe to be cut and exposed a few cards on the back of the shoe. 3 of clubs, 7 of clubs, ace of spades. The player cut about 1 deck and then waited. About one deck in he saw his 3 of clubs, bet big, and caught his ace of spades. Good for him for keeping his eyes open, and taking advantage of a good situation, but what is more important is that you learn to think. When you run into this type of thing ask yourself:
“What caused the dealer to expose those cards?”
“Is it possible I could find more of these opportunities?”
“Are there other dealers who might be prone to this?”
“What if I scouted for dealers to see if I could find this opportunity again?”
“Is it possible that this could apply to other games?”
Actions speak louder than words - and get the money. 99/100 people on the boards will look at the above example and say, "Yeah, that is a big edge, but I'll only see that once every hundred years." (See #3)
6. I think one of the most important things I can tell you is this - right now there are games out there worth $1,000 or $2,000 per hour. There are many games out there right now worth $500 per hour. They are there. If you go out and dig you will find the gold. (See #1) And when you find it... remember who your friends are.
Sunday, March 18, 2012
New Ideas in Backgammon by Kit Woolsey & Hal Heinrich
Another guest book review by Jake Jacobs
Does anyone know what piece of technology revolutionized backgammon? Picture a time so remote that assigning it a date would serve no useful purpose. Imagine a troglodyte, toiling in his lonely cave. Gnawing absently on the shank of a sheep (the tallow waxing his matted beard), he grunts in concentration. He seeks to invent...something. Fire, the wheel, papyrus, or perhaps a Maytag washer. Anything that will change the course of history. Finally, he has it. He holds up a curious object. It is a rectangle of stiff paper, with triangular symbols stamped like mystic runes upon it. Yes, it’s the young Larry Strommen, and he has just invented the position card! (I am not sure that Larry invented the position card, but I buy all mine from Larry, so I thought I would give him a plug.)
I take these cards and record interesting positions. Thousands of them. On the back I record pertinent data: history, players, rollouts. Then, I throw the cards in a huge paper bag, stored under my bed, where they have turned into compost. Friends, like Paul Franks, are always saying to me: “You know what kind of book people want to read? A problem book with lots of positions. I love those. Forget that “Fish” stuff. No one wants to read it. I only read the pages with my name on them, anyway! Take those little cards of yours and do a problem book.” Sorry, Paul. I don’t go into that bag without Kevlar body armor and tranquilizer darts. God knows what sort of dangerous mutant things are growing down there, but most nights I see emergency vehicles, mars lights flashing, zipping around under my bed. (I should switch to O’Doul’s). Fortunately for Paul, someone else went ahead and wrote one.
Hal Heinrich, the World Champ from Calgary, has, instead of positions, collected entire matches. He stores them away in a “data base”, which is the micro-chip equivalent of the paper bag under the bed. By now no one knows what festers there, but reliable rumor has it that seven or eight of the top rated players on FIBS are actually computer viruses spawned in Hal’s cyber-swamp.
Hal collaborates with famed player/author/analyst Kit Woolsey. Kit is one of the finest games players in the world. In addition to his accomplishments in backgammon, he is a world class bridge player (and writer - his MATCHPOINTS is rightly regarded as a classic), and a top blackjack player. In an article on the “ten best gamblers in the world” Kit’s name was second. He is only a mediocre player at “Settlers Of Catan”, but no one is good at everything.
Together they have done a series of annotated matches for book and computer. Their latest effort, NEW IDEAS IN BACKGAMMON, arose from their research. The other great technical advance in backgammon, almost as incredible as the position card, is JellyFish. JF’s creator, Fredrick Dahl, has provided Hal and Kit with a version of Jelly that rolls out entire matches. The program flags plays whenever it “thinks” the player has made a play significantly worse than the one Jelly prefers. When Hal and Kit found that they, too, missed Jelly’s recommended play, they decided the position merited study. After elaborate screening, including submitting several hundred plays to a panel of experts, they collected the 104 problem positions treated in their new book. The positions are grouped into seven chapters, each problem in the chapter relating to that chapter’s theme.
The format is simple, with all the best features of a problem book, and a few new, good features all its own. Each position is pictured, then Kit devotes a page or two to describing the candidate plays, and discusses their possible strengths and weaknesses. Then, the best play is shown in diagram, with a follow-up discussion of why that play wins out. In an appendix, the rollout results are given for all plays, along with an indication of which plays the panel chose, and what play was done over the board.
The problems are tough. Here are problems 81 and 82 from the chapter “Scrambling Home”. They have something in common. Can you guess what?
I warned you they were hard. The common element is the importance of the five point. If you want to take another minute to rethink your plays, go ahead before I give the best plays, and summarize the explanations.
Only one of the panelists chose to hit by switching points in problem 81. Good, because switching is very wrong. Most found individual solutions to the problem of builder deployment. Three found the best possible deployment of builders: put two men right on the five point with 7-5 . Kit’s explanation is that this is not a priming position, it is an attacking position. Build the five, then go after Black’s blot.
Almost to a man, the panel selected 13-7, 4-2 in problem 82. Only the original player tried the craven 15-13 , 7-3. The best play is 15-11 . One panelist actually chose that. Kit’s explanation is that without the five point, the bar point is not effective. The five can’t be built this turn, so the best alternative is the play that exerts the most “control” over the five point. Building the eleven point does that.
I like to imagine these problems arising in a consulting chouette. I think I might, depending on current climate conditions, choose to make the five point in problem 81. I further think I might convince my chouettemates to go with that play. I would not have chosen to make the eleven point in response to problem 82, and I am damn sure I could never convince my mates in any chouette to go along with it, even if I had access to NEW IDEAS and could read them the proof of its rightness.
Is this solution right? I think so. The authors devote the introduction to a detailed explanation of their rollout methods. They succeeded in convincing me that most of the plays in the book are probably right, and right by a lot. They concede that there may be a few that slipped through the cracks, but in all likelyhood, this book’s recommended plays are as accurate as the recommendations of any problem book published.
There are two other matters that do trouble me. First, although cube locations appear with the diagrams, we are told to ignore the cube. This does not mean that the plays given are the best play at double match point, it means that we have to ignore a factor that may override all other considerations. Also, no match score is ever given.
The difference in expected value between the “best” play, 21-15 , 8-2x , and the chosen play, 21-9 , is .110. This is a HUGE amount. Pointing wins nearly twice as many gammons. What if the score happened to be 7-8 to 9, post-Crawford? Now, the player’s original choice of making the 9 point would be correct, as it wins about 5% more games than its aggressive counterpart. For that matter, does the expected value correspond with the depicted cube location in all cases? We are not told. JellyFish rollouts provide data for all four possible locations of the cube, but the book provides only one set for each problem, and never specifies just which of the four it is.
The second flaw has to do with Kit’s analysis. Most writers attack a problem with math, or logic, or rollout data. Their aim is to show that a particular move is right. Kit’s approach has always been to explain the approach that should allow YOU to arrive at the correct answer. Generally he arrives at his answers through “induction”, building argument upon argument till he has constructed a solid case. This time, he has to use “deduction”. He is looking at JellyFish’s answer, and finding ways of dismissing the alternate plays, until only Jelly’s choice remains. If he had tried to go both ways, first building his case, then,when his choice differed from Jelly’s (and according to the introduction that should have been at least half the time), explained why he had fallen into error, the book would be even stronger.
The above complaints aside, this book more than lives up to its billing. I would not recommend it to beginners. Kit’s style is clear enough that they will easily grasp his arguments, but beginners need to ground themselves thoroughly in the basics, to master and memorize the rules. This book will fill their heads with exceptions. For everyone else, from advanced intermediate to expert, the book is a must read. The more expert you are, or hope to be, the more certain it is that you need a copy of this one on your shelf.
by Kit Woolsey & Hal Heinrich
Does anyone know what piece of technology revolutionized backgammon? Picture a time so remote that assigning it a date would serve no useful purpose. Imagine a troglodyte, toiling in his lonely cave. Gnawing absently on the shank of a sheep (the tallow waxing his matted beard), he grunts in concentration. He seeks to invent...something. Fire, the wheel, papyrus, or perhaps a Maytag washer. Anything that will change the course of history. Finally, he has it. He holds up a curious object. It is a rectangle of stiff paper, with triangular symbols stamped like mystic runes upon it. Yes, it’s the young Larry Strommen, and he has just invented the position card! (I am not sure that Larry invented the position card, but I buy all mine from Larry, so I thought I would give him a plug.)
I take these cards and record interesting positions. Thousands of them. On the back I record pertinent data: history, players, rollouts. Then, I throw the cards in a huge paper bag, stored under my bed, where they have turned into compost. Friends, like Paul Franks, are always saying to me: “You know what kind of book people want to read? A problem book with lots of positions. I love those. Forget that “Fish” stuff. No one wants to read it. I only read the pages with my name on them, anyway! Take those little cards of yours and do a problem book.” Sorry, Paul. I don’t go into that bag without Kevlar body armor and tranquilizer darts. God knows what sort of dangerous mutant things are growing down there, but most nights I see emergency vehicles, mars lights flashing, zipping around under my bed. (I should switch to O’Doul’s). Fortunately for Paul, someone else went ahead and wrote one.
Hal Heinrich, the World Champ from Calgary, has, instead of positions, collected entire matches. He stores them away in a “data base”, which is the micro-chip equivalent of the paper bag under the bed. By now no one knows what festers there, but reliable rumor has it that seven or eight of the top rated players on FIBS are actually computer viruses spawned in Hal’s cyber-swamp.
Hal collaborates with famed player/author/analyst Kit Woolsey. Kit is one of the finest games players in the world. In addition to his accomplishments in backgammon, he is a world class bridge player (and writer - his MATCHPOINTS is rightly regarded as a classic), and a top blackjack player. In an article on the “ten best gamblers in the world” Kit’s name was second. He is only a mediocre player at “Settlers Of Catan”, but no one is good at everything.
Together they have done a series of annotated matches for book and computer. Their latest effort, NEW IDEAS IN BACKGAMMON, arose from their research. The other great technical advance in backgammon, almost as incredible as the position card, is JellyFish. JF’s creator, Fredrick Dahl, has provided Hal and Kit with a version of Jelly that rolls out entire matches. The program flags plays whenever it “thinks” the player has made a play significantly worse than the one Jelly prefers. When Hal and Kit found that they, too, missed Jelly’s recommended play, they decided the position merited study. After elaborate screening, including submitting several hundred plays to a panel of experts, they collected the 104 problem positions treated in their new book. The positions are grouped into seven chapters, each problem in the chapter relating to that chapter’s theme.
The format is simple, with all the best features of a problem book, and a few new, good features all its own. Each position is pictured, then Kit devotes a page or two to describing the candidate plays, and discusses their possible strengths and weaknesses. Then, the best play is shown in diagram, with a follow-up discussion of why that play wins out. In an appendix, the rollout results are given for all plays, along with an indication of which plays the panel chose, and what play was done over the board.
The problems are tough. Here are problems 81 and 82 from the chapter “Scrambling Home”. They have something in common. Can you guess what?
I warned you they were hard. The common element is the importance of the five point. If you want to take another minute to rethink your plays, go ahead before I give the best plays, and summarize the explanations.
Only one of the panelists chose to hit by switching points in problem 81. Good, because switching is very wrong. Most found individual solutions to the problem of builder deployment. Three found the best possible deployment of builders: put two men right on the five point with 7-5 . Kit’s explanation is that this is not a priming position, it is an attacking position. Build the five, then go after Black’s blot.
Almost to a man, the panel selected 13-7, 4-2 in problem 82. Only the original player tried the craven 15-13 , 7-3. The best play is 15-11 . One panelist actually chose that. Kit’s explanation is that without the five point, the bar point is not effective. The five can’t be built this turn, so the best alternative is the play that exerts the most “control” over the five point. Building the eleven point does that.
I like to imagine these problems arising in a consulting chouette. I think I might, depending on current climate conditions, choose to make the five point in problem 81. I further think I might convince my chouettemates to go with that play. I would not have chosen to make the eleven point in response to problem 82, and I am damn sure I could never convince my mates in any chouette to go along with it, even if I had access to NEW IDEAS and could read them the proof of its rightness.
Is this solution right? I think so. The authors devote the introduction to a detailed explanation of their rollout methods. They succeeded in convincing me that most of the plays in the book are probably right, and right by a lot. They concede that there may be a few that slipped through the cracks, but in all likelyhood, this book’s recommended plays are as accurate as the recommendations of any problem book published.
There are two other matters that do trouble me. First, although cube locations appear with the diagrams, we are told to ignore the cube. This does not mean that the plays given are the best play at double match point, it means that we have to ignore a factor that may override all other considerations. Also, no match score is ever given.
The difference in expected value between the “best” play, 21-15 , 8-2x , and the chosen play, 21-9 , is .110. This is a HUGE amount. Pointing wins nearly twice as many gammons. What if the score happened to be 7-8 to 9, post-Crawford? Now, the player’s original choice of making the 9 point would be correct, as it wins about 5% more games than its aggressive counterpart. For that matter, does the expected value correspond with the depicted cube location in all cases? We are not told. JellyFish rollouts provide data for all four possible locations of the cube, but the book provides only one set for each problem, and never specifies just which of the four it is.
The second flaw has to do with Kit’s analysis. Most writers attack a problem with math, or logic, or rollout data. Their aim is to show that a particular move is right. Kit’s approach has always been to explain the approach that should allow YOU to arrive at the correct answer. Generally he arrives at his answers through “induction”, building argument upon argument till he has constructed a solid case. This time, he has to use “deduction”. He is looking at JellyFish’s answer, and finding ways of dismissing the alternate plays, until only Jelly’s choice remains. If he had tried to go both ways, first building his case, then,when his choice differed from Jelly’s (and according to the introduction that should have been at least half the time), explained why he had fallen into error, the book would be even stronger.
The above complaints aside, this book more than lives up to its billing. I would not recommend it to beginners. Kit’s style is clear enough that they will easily grasp his arguments, but beginners need to ground themselves thoroughly in the basics, to master and memorize the rules. This book will fill their heads with exceptions. For everyone else, from advanced intermediate to expert, the book is a must read. The more expert you are, or hope to be, the more certain it is that you need a copy of this one on your shelf.
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Gambling With an Edge - guest Shirley Dancer
The guest on the show this week is Shirley Dancer, Bob Dancer's wife. She discusses what it is like to be married to a professional gambler.
Click to listen - Alt click to download
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