I have two distinct lives. One in the trenches of low-budget film and television, the other in professional gambling. Because of the feast-or-famine nature of show business I need a reliable income... gambling. So here you will read about both worlds. Enjoy!

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Gambling With an Edge - Sports bettor Rufus Peabody

Our guests this week is professional sports bettor Rufus Peabody,  who tells the story about being shut out of a $1 million first prize at the Draft Kings NFL handicapping contest. We also discuss his sports betting process, and his podcast, Bet The Process.

click to listen - alt click to download

Show Notes

[00:00] Introduction of Rufus Peabody, professional sports bettor

[00:30] How did Rufus get involved in sports betting?

[03:19] Besides econometrics, what other mathematical experience does Rufus have?

[04:22] Does Rufus wish that he had an alias?

[04:59] Draft Kings contest: overlay, parlays, strategy, bet grading

[14:13] Did Rufus' Super Bowl portfolio do well?

[16:01] Where did Rufus watch the Super Bowl?

[16:30] "Bet the Process" podcast with Rufus and Jeff Ma

[19:42] Rufus' NFL consulting experience

[21:35] What teams are most likely to embrace analytics?

[23:23] Should an NFL trailing by 3 points call a time out before the 2-minute warning?

[25:00] South Point February promotions - casino-wide progressives, President's Day $32k give away, free video poker classes

[26:43] VideoPoker.com - Game of the Week is "Face Card Frenzy"

[27:24] Where does Rufus release his picks?

[27:56] Does Rufus mostly bet sides and totals?

[28:57] How does Rufus balance the pros and cons of early betting and late betting?

[30:04] Does Rufus watch games?

[31:31] Does Rufus like bridge jumper bets like "no safety?"

[33:07] Betting on golf

[33:24] How does Rufus get NFL data?

[34:15] MLB data sets and umpire biases

[36:04] Rufus' Twitter feed, @RufusPeabody

[36:41] Rufus' Super Bowl betting process

[40:46] Is it more dangerous to bet on Belichick games?

[43:06] Did Rufus get as much money down as expected on the Super Bowl?
[46:47] Would Rufus use bet runners to get money down?

[47:36] Did Rufus ever consider betting on horse racing?

[49:05] How did Rufus' parents react to his career path?

[50:43] How does Rufus' career affect his relationship with his girlfriend?


Thursday, February 7, 2019

Gambling With an Edge - Spanky part 2

Our guest this week is a professional sports bettor, Spanky.  We discuss how his operation works, and the art and science of sports betting.

We welcome your questions - send them to us at gamblingwithanedge@gmail.com, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter.

click to listen - alt click to download

Show Notes

[00:00] Introduction of sports bettor Spanky, @Spanky on Twitter
[00:30] Richard's secret game
[01:09] Was Spanky affected by the blown call in the Saints/Rams game?
[04:13] How did Spanky get his nickname?
[05:18] How often did Spanky get stiffed by offshore books?
[06:24] Does Spanky bet on March Madness or avoid it?
[08:26] Does Spanky enter handicapping contests?
[11:23] What percentage of Spanky's betting is against the opening line?
[13:16] What percentage of the time does Spanky beat the closing line?
[15:35] Does Spanky beat the Pinnacle closing lines?
[20:47] Is any sport particularly easy to beat?
[22:37] What division of labor exists on Spanky's team?
[26:12] Do Spanky's employees have non-compete agreements?
[28:13] How does Spanky evaluate potential betting partners?
[30:33] More info on Spanky's Billy Walters story
[33:00] South Point Casino February Promotions, free video poker classes
[34:30] VideoPoker.com: Game of the Week is "Super "Triple Play Jackpot"
[35:34] How much is Spanky involved in game analysis?
[36:47] Do less experienced bettors remove some of Spanky's edge?
[40:14] Does Spanky bet on obscure games that his employees recommend?
[42:29] How much autonomy do Spanky's employees have?
[45:02] Does Spank bet on baseball?
[46:21] More info on Spanky's experience in Costa Rica
[50:45] Did Spanky know Tony, the founder of 5Dimes?
[53:08] How does Spanky make money? What is the mix of art and science?
[56:16] How can people get in touch with Spanky?
[56:54] Do books often cut Spanky's lines as shown in his Harrah's video?