I have two distinct lives. One in the trenches of low-budget film and television, the other in professional gambling. Because of the feast-or-famine nature of show business I need a reliable income... gambling. So here you will read about both worlds. Enjoy!

Thursday, September 24, 2020

Gambling With an Edge - guest Jason Pipkin

Our guest this week is  Jason Pipkin. Jason is a neuroscientist who gambles semi-professionally on elections at  

We welcome your questions - send them to us at, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or

Click to listen - Alt click to download

Show Notes

[00:00]  Introduction of Jason Pipkin, frequent bettor at
[00:58]  How did Jason get started on
[02:48]  Jason's background and
[04:30]  Commissions and contract limits
[10:26]  Biden and Trump double max contract example
[12:35]  Liquidity and market efficiency
[14:35]  Can personal political biases affect profitability?
[16:04]  Arbitrage
[17:38]  Trading frequency
[18:45]  Volatility
[20:16]  Holding periods and exit strategy
[21:28]  Black swan betting
[23:08]  2016 Presidential election market strategies
[25:48]  Computer analysis and modeling
[26:59] market forums
[28:40]  What percentage of bettors in political markets are profitable?
[31:24]  Straddles
[32:47]  Determinants of volatility
[36:12]  Foreign elections
[38:30]  South Point Casino September Promotions - $500,000 Guaranteed Money Madness
[39:22] -  place small bets on various political events
[39:55] - card counting training site and community
[40:25] - Gold Membership offers corrections on most games
[41:47]  Market suggestions
[43:20]  Similarities to options trading
[45:24]  Holding contracts until expiry
[48:39]  How can listeners contact Jason?
[49:10]  Discussing gambling in personal relationships
[50:28]  Recommended -

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