I have two distinct lives. One in the trenches of low-budget film and television, the other in professional gambling. Because of the feast-or-famine nature of show business I need a reliable income... gambling. So here you will read about both worlds. Enjoy!

Thursday, October 1, 2020

Gambling With an Edge - guest Matt of PlusEVanalytics.

Our guest this week is Matt from He is a Canadian actuary who also dabbles in advantage play. We discuss Taleb's concept of anti-fragility and how that is very useful in sports betting. We also discuss how the Kelly Criterion comes up with different answers sometimes and how are we to know which is which?

We welcome your questions - send them to us at, or you can find me at @RWM21 on Twitter or

Click to listen - Alt click to download

Show Notes

[00:00]  Introduction of Matt from

[00:50]  Show notes information and availability

[02:36]  The best forum for site comments and feedback is at

[03:21]  Actuarial science as a profession

[05:40]  Nassim Nicholas Taleb,

[11:14]  NFL season totals and antifragility

[15:45]  Dow Jones and antifragility

[17:36] and distributional mathematics

[24:46]  Super Bowl prop bets, Michael Shackleford, and market efficiency

[30:35]  Sportsbook hold versus roulette hold, epistemic uncertainty and adverse selection

[39:19]  South Point Casino October Promotions - 'Free Play with a Kicker'

[39:59] - place small bets on various political outcomes, $20 deposit match for GWAE listeners

[40:40] - card counting training site and community

[41;02] - Gold Membership offers correction on most games

[41:57]  Kelly Criterion

[45:49]  Being both an actuary and a gambler

[53:10]  How can listeners contact Matt?

[56:03]  Recommended - Schitt's Creek on Netflix, Captain Jack Andrews on Youtube and Twitter

Sponsored Links:

Guest Links:


Schitt's Creek,

Captain Jack Andrews,,

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