Gambling With an Edge - guest Anthony Curtis

Our guest this week is Anthony Curtis, owner of The Las Vegas Advisor and Huntington Press publishing.  We discuss the new legal online poker in Nevada,  and a young player who asks if he should turn pro. 

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Legal online poker started today.

UltimatePoker started online poker for real money today. The bad news is this is only for people in Nevada. UltimatePoker is a subsidiary of Station Casinos. Why in the world would they choose this name? Did they not know that Ultimate Bet was involved in a huge cheating scandal and ripped off thousands of players? What's next, Bernie Madoff Mutual Funds? Well, I wanted to review this software for you all, but the first thing I saw when signing up was that I would have to provide my Social Security Number in order to verify my identity. Are you kidding me? I am going to hand over my SSN to Station Casinos? I know for video poker players, and slot players this is no big deal, but for an advantage player worried about protecting his identity? Forget it!

Personally, I can't see traveling to Las Vegas, and sitting in my hotel room playing online poker. And you can't do this on a netbook because the software requires a bigger screen resolution. I am thrilled that the first crack in the dike is here for legal online gambling. I am eagerly anticipating the day when we can play all casino games on the net, in every state. But for now I will pass.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Nolan Dalla - media director for the World Series of Poker

The guest this week is Nolan Dalla, media director of the World Series of Poker.

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Random thoughts on random posts

A couple posts on the blackjack forums caught my eye this week. The first was from a player who asked, "What is the best casinos for APs to play?" I had to laugh. First of all, the answer to the question is going to be completely different for every player depending on his circumstance. A $5 players is going to have better conditions in one casino than a $500 player. A shuffle tracker is going to like a different casino, and a hole card player somewhere else. The other thing that struck me is how incredibly rude this question is. Imagine you owned a business, and I said to you, "I'm thinking of getting into this same business. Can you give me the names and numbers of your best customers?" You really are asking me to just give you money. With newer players I think they don't realize they are being rude. It is just ignorance on their part. But I get emails occasionally from players who should know better - "Hey, I heard there are bags of money laying around. Can you tell me where?" I call these players the "all take and no give" players.

I am a pretty open guy. I give people information if I think it can help them, or if it is the type of game I know they play that I don't. But I expect that they will do the same for me. I had one friend, Joe, who I literally gave 6 figures worth of info to over a period of years. I mean, I know he won 6 figures off the info. What I would get in return was, "Oh there was a really great game in X, but it's dead now." Or I would hear from mutual friends about an opportunity, and they would say, "Oh yeah. Joe has been pounding that for months."
Needless to say I don't talk to Joe much anymore.

The other post that caught my eye asked (paraphrasing), "What ratio of expenses to ev is acceptable for a blackjack trip?" Many responders answered that this is really a personal choice, but it brought to mind another question I was asked. After one of our radio shows Bob and I went out with friends. One of them asked us "What is your favorite game to play?" Bob's answer was simple. "Whichever game has the highest ev." My answer is a bit more complicated. When I consider what trip to make, or what game to play, the expenses really don't enter into it much. These are the factors I consider:

What do I think the game is worth in dollars per hour? Obvious right? But just because a game is worth the most money doesn't mean that is the one I would choose.

Where is it? If the game is in Minnesota in the middle of winter, or in a country I consider dangerous, well there better be extra reasons for going. By the way - I am not one of those people that thinks other countries are scary places. I like traveling to new places, but I have done a lot of it. I like living out of a suitcase less, and less. Russia = scary. Columbia = scary. Korea = not at all. Is it a place I want to visit anyway? This summer I plan to hit Singapore, and Philippines. I have family in both places, so if I don't find a game to play that is okay.

Who is going? This is actually a really important factor for me. Some people just make a trip more fun. I know I am going to do more laughing if Max Rubin is on the trip. Even though he snores, bursts out laughing in his sleep for no known reason, and somehow leaves chips under the dresser or in the shower. With a certain other person I know we will all make more money. He may work you 18 hours a day with no breaks for food, but the bottom line will be much higher.

What is the heat situation? Some places are really steamy, some are very cool. Obviously I like the cool places even if they are not the highest dollar-per-hour.

What game are we going to play? I have played many different table games in casinos. I like to play games that involve 2 or more team members at the same table. Bonus points if we can all act like we know each other. Counting something by myself, even if it is a new game or side-bet - this is misery for me.

Throw all those factors in the blender, add some secret sauce, (usually having something to do with what my wife says) and you get my formula. Want me to go count some new game in upstate NY in the middle of winter? It better be worth $1,000 an hour with little chance of getting backed off. They opened a casino in Bali, and a bunch of friends are going. It might be worth $100 an hour? Deal me in.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Ken Adams

The guest this week is Ken Adams. Ken is a prolific writer about the gambling industry. You can read his work at cdcgamingreports.com

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Shuffle Tracking & Ace Sequencing

Card counters spend a lot of time learning to count. They memorize basic strategy, then slowly learn to cancel the pluses and minuses. Next they learn to estimate the number of cards in the discard rack, and adjust their running count to a true count. They memorize index plays so they know when it is correct to double 9 vs. 7, or A6 vs. 2. They then venture out to casinos where they have to put this all together. The dealers are faster than they practiced at home on the kitchen table. Cocktail waitresses are pestering them for drink orders, tourists are blowing smoke in their faces, pit bosses are asking them questions, and slot machines are dinging, and gonging, and clanging. Finally they get to the point where they can do it. They can count, and adjust for true counts, and make index plays. They get home from their weekend in Vegas, and... it's over. They spent dozens if not hundreds of hours practicing, and now what? How do they fill that time at home that used to be devoted to practice?

Gambling With an Edge - guest Cat Hulbert

Our guest this week is Cat Hulbert. Cat was a professional blackjack player 30+ years ago. She played with the Czechs, and on the Ken Uston team in Atlantic City. She then turned to professional poker. She is the author of Outplaying the Boys, and is featured in Gambling Wizards.

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Gambling With An Edge - guest Mark Billings

The guest this week is Mark Billings, author of  The Ultimate Edge. The book talks about blackjack in the 1980s.

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Response to some emails

I've had some emails that I wanted to respond to, and now is as good a time as any. The first was from a new player that had a pit boss accuse him of counting cards. He wanted to know how he should handle that, and he had a concern about being flyered. He has heard that casinos will send out flyers about advantage players and he wants to be sure that it doesn't happen to him.

Let's start with the first question. What should you do when a boss comes up to you at the table, and says something like, "How long you been counting?" or "What count are you using?" Usually when a boss does this he is fishing. He suspects you are counting, but isn't sure so he wants to gauge your reaction. Many people strive for the clever response like, "Yeah, I counted them all and there are 316 cards in there," or "8 and 6, I got 14." Some people opt for the long story, "Yeah, I read one of those books, but it put me to sleep." I think the less said the better. You don't want to say anything that will make you memorable, and you want to leave as soon as possible without looking like you are running away. I think the complete non sequitur is a good choice, as if you didn't really hear or understand what he said. "Yeah, she should be here any minute but she is always late." That's a good time to receive a fake phone call and get up from the table. Pick up your chips while talking on the phone and head for the door. I think it is a bad idea to hang around and "convince" the boss that you are just a ploppy. The reason this is a bad idea is it gives the boss an opportunity to point you out to other bosses and compare notes. Nothing good can come of this. Just hit the door, and avoid that shift for a while.

You want to avoid getting flyered? I hate to break it to you, but if you play for any serious money there is no way to avoid it. Back-offs, barrings, and flyers are just a fact of life for anyone who bets serious money. If none of this is happening to you, then take a serious look at your game. You probably aren't a winning player.

Another player wrote to say he was accosted by security in one of the large chain casino in Las Vegas. He wasn't playing, just scouting games, and they said he had been 86ed. He argued that this was not true, and he had no idea what they were talking about. They gave him a name, and he said, "That isn't me. My name is X." He ended up showing them his ID, and they were now confused, and they let him go. So what happened?  I am pretty sure this was a case of the writer looking a lot like someone else. In poker we would call this a bad beat. The only thing you can do at that point is change your appearance as much as possible so you don't look like that picture floating around out there. Cut your hair, grow a beard, get contact lenses.

Many years ago in Korea my partner was pulled aside by a manager. He said, "We know who you are." My friend said, "What do you mean? Who do you think I am?" The manager said, "Steven Michael Goldberg." Now the old timers in the room will be laughing at this point. There was no greater insult this boss could have come up with. Steve Goldberg was the most vile, and reviled man in blackjack. His name came up a couple times in Gambling Wizards, and I referred to him as Ratso because he was still alive at the time. The name Ratso was due to a pet rat that he would allow to crawl around on him while conducting business. Anyway, our team had many a laugh over our member being barred as Steve Goldberg.

One more story. About 30 years ago my brother Jake was sitting on a blackjack table in the Tropicana in Las Vegas. He was betting quarters, and there was another guy at the table betting heavy black. The shift boss had come over and was talking to the big bettor. At one point he turned to Jake and said, "Are you a card counter?" My brother looked taken aback and said, "No, why would you say that?" The boss pointed at the other bosses in the pit and said, "Those guys think you're a card counter." Jake said, "Why do they think that?" The shift boss said, "I don't know. I'll go ask them." The shift boss came back with a Griffin flyer with a picture of Jake. The boss handed it over and said, "They think this is you." Jake's look was not what you would call nondescript. Think Santa Claus before his hair turned white. Jake said, "Well that kind of looks like me, but that's not me." The boss handed the flyer to the high-roller. "What do you think?" The high-roller said, "That looks like him." The boss said, "This isn't you?" "Nope." "And you're not a card counter? "Nope." "Do you swear you're not a card counter?" "Yep." "Okay, stand up and raise your right hand." Jake stood up and raised his right hand. The boss said, "Repeat after me. I swear I'm not a card counter." Jake said, "I swear I'm not a card counter." The shift boss said, "Okay, that's good enough for me," and walked away! One of my team mates happened to be in the Tropicana when this happened and witnessed the whole thing, so we had all heard the story already when he burst through the door saying, "You're never going to believe what just happened to me."

Keep those cards and letter coming.

Name that casino

I know what you're thinking, and that's not it.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Michael Shakleford

Our guest this week is Mike Shakleford aka "The Wizard of Odds." We talk about his casino fact finding trip to Costa Rica, and advantage bingo.

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Gambling With an Edge logos

A couple weeks ago I mentioned on the show that iTunes now wants a 1400x1400 pixel logo for the podcast. Sort of like an album cover they display in iTunes  We invited people to send submissions if they were feeling in a creative mood. We got a couple submissions from Tim at Park Printing in Palos Hills, IL so I thought I would put them up here and get some feedback.

This was the first attempt. I like the idea of trying to incorporate the letters in the backs of cards, but not quite there.

I like the chips and mic, but I think the font makes this look a bit cartoonish.

Here are a couple from DJTeddybear.

A late entry.I'm liking this one best so far. This is from Nicholas S. in Los Angeles.

This one came in from Richard Knight.

Okay, so I hope I have sparked people's creative juices here and we get some more submissions.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Bob Nersesian #6

The guest this week is Bob Nersesian.  Bob is a frequent guest to the show, and always entertaining.  Bob is the lawyer who advocates for the players against the casinos, and has successfully sued many Vegas casinos on the behalf of players.  He is also the author of Beat the Players.

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Name That Casino 3

There is still one casino unidentified from my original name that casino. It is this one.

So it is time for one last hint. I was going to go with something hard, like this...

But I thought that might still be too tough. So this next one should be enough to get it.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Barry Meadow

Our guest this week is Barry Meadow, author of Blackjack Autumn. The book chronicles Barry' trip to play blackjack in every casino in the state of Nevada.

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A couple random thoughts

I read a couple things that caught m eye this week. First there is this. 7 rules for recording police. Professional gamblers may have to deal with police in several situations. The first is when driving with large amounts of cash. In the past I have advocated recording the police in these situations. Laws vary from state to state, but as you will see in the article it is legal to record the police in 38 states, and even some states that do not have laws permitting it classify it as a public conversation so you are still protected. The two most important states for me are Nevada and California, but take the time to research your own situation. Two other situations that come to mind are dealing with police in airports, and in casinos when they have been summoned by security. Be aware, just because you are not breaking the law doesn't mean you may not get arrested. Anyway, it's a good article so check it out, and know your rights.

The second article was Bob Dancer's weekly article at the Las Vegas Advisor. There Should Be a Limit.
In Bob's case it involves an annoying fan talking to him while he is trying to work, but for blackjack players this is a much bigger deal. You should never, ever, talk to another advantage player inside a casino. NEVER. I don't care if you think you are in good, or "it's not a big deal," or, "I haven't played here in months." You don't know if you have heat. You don't know if the other person has heat which now may transfer to you. I was 86ed because of exactly this kind of careless behavior.  An AP came up and talked to me, it turned out he had a lot of heat, and because surveillance was watching him I was infected, and then 86ed. This happened even though when he talked to me I looked at my watch, and said, "Get away from me" as if I was telling him the time. Some people will talk in the bathroom where there are no cameras, but even then you don't know who may be in a stall and hear you, or who may walk in and see you together. So if you see me in a casino, send me a text, or an email, but please don't come over to say, "hi."

Gambling With an Edge - guest Laurance Scott

Our guest this week is Laurance Scott, author of Professional Roulette Prediction. Laurance has developed a way to beat roulette by visually tracking the speed of the ball, and the wheel, and then predicting where the ball will land.  Sound crazy? Give it a listen.

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You can read my review of Scott's book here. Review.

Professional Roulette Prediction by Laurance Scott

Professional Roulette Prediction, by Laurance Scott was originally written in 1990, and then revised and re-released in 2005. The book presents a method for beating roulette through visual prediction. Scott presents  a method for timing the speed of the ball, and the speed of the rotor, and using the relation of those two speeds you can predict where the rotor will be when the ball leaves the track. There is then one more variable to deal with, how much the ball bounces once it hits the track. When Scott first wrote this book, wheels with deep pockets were common.

Unfortunately these type wheels are now rare. They started being replaced by "low profile" wheels like this.

Low profile wheel

And then it got really bad. Many modern wheels look like this.

What this means is that predicting how much the ball bounces around when it hits the numbers is much harder than it used to be. Does it work? Yes. I am a 100% believer that visual roulette prediction is possible at least on the old deep pocket wheels. But let's talk about the negatives.

1. This is very difficult to learn. In the book Scott estimates 40 hours. I think that estimate is way low. I believe his estimate was with him teaching his son who had the benefit of having his father there to teach him.
2. You probably need to buy a roulette wheel to really practice. Cost, $3,000 - $4,000.
3. Good wheels are harder, and harder to find.
4. The dealer can take away your edge very easily. For this method to work you need to bet late into the spin. Now this is common for roulette players but once you start winning many dealers will just start calling "no more bets" earlier, and earlier.

When I wrote about "dice control" I said that even if you could learn to do it I didn't think you could make any money at it. It is so obvious what you are trying to do that the casino will shut it down right away. This is the opposite. I think if you can learn to do this there is a lot of money to be made, but probably not in the US. In other countries roulette is much more popular, late betting is common, and they have conditions that help, like being able to make "neighbors bets."

Bottom line - this is no get rich quick scheme. It is very difficult to learn, much more difficult than counting cards. But it is a legitimate advantage play, so if you are interested in roulette, and are willing to shell out $90 for volume one then check it out. His entire package costs about $650 and includes some practice DVDs, but if you are really interested I would start with just book 1 so you get an idea of just how much work is going to be involved.

Here is a link to the book. Professional Roulette Prediction. 

Here is a link to the podcast of Laurance Scott on Gambling With an Edge. - podcast

Ping Pang Pong revisited

I had quite a few comments about my review of Ping Pang Pong, so this week I headed back for another try. They are open from 10 am to 3 pm for Dim Sum, but I missed that. They open again at 5:00 for dinner, and I arrived just as they opened.

I guess they forgot to sweep.

If this is what the floor looks like when they open you can imagine what it is like at midnight. But hey, I'm not eating off the floor. Bring it on. Many of the comments I have read said you have to try the regional dishes, this is where they excel. Okay, I tried the salt and pepper frog legs.

These were quite good. I don't know why people say, "It tastes like chicken." I think it tastes a lot closer to pork.

I think people got the impression I hated this place. I don't. It's not horrible, it's... adequate. If I were with a group of friends at the Gold Cost and they wanted to eat here I wouldn't object. But for Travel & Leisure to name it one of the best Chinese restaurants in the U.S.? I think they were licking the hallucinogenic frogs, not eating them.

Gambling With an Edge - guest Mike Aponte of the MIT blackjack team

This week our guest is Mike Aponte, former member of the MIT blackjack team featured in the movie 21, and the book, Bringing Down the House.

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